In the first half of 2025, the attention to the Transpacific route has been completely dominated by the topic of tariffs, and a general air of pessimism permeates the freight market. This leads to other important changes in global logistics being overlooked, including the rise of new ocean freight alliances on the Transpacific route and a noticeable growth in some shipping companies.
Five Freight Alliances Dominate Transpacific Shipping Market
2025 marks the beginning of a new alliance era on the Transpacific route. In the past few years, this would have been considered a major development. Now, it is pale in comparision to the trade war and tariffs.
After a turbulent first half-year, we are now in a brief moment of clarity in tariff policies, which finally allows us to take a closer look at the new dynamics under the emerging alliances.
Currently, the Transpacific route is dominated by five major players:
- The independent MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Company)
- The new Gemini Cooperation (GC) comprising Maersk (MSK) and Hapag-Lloyd (Hapag)
- The scaled-down THE Alliance, now Premier Alliance (PA), consisting of ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp (YML)
- The longstanding Ocean Alliance (OA) with CMA, COSCO, OOCL, and Evergreen Marine Corp (EMC)
- A growing number of independent carriers.
The largest of them all, OA, saw a 3% year-on-year decline in market share from January to July, based on cargo volume parameters for shipments from Asia to the US, commonly referred to as the Transpacific route. The PA alliance also experienced a drop, largely due to the reduced capacity following Hapag-Lloyd’s departure. Meanwhile, the newly formed GC, the independently operating MSC, and the increasingly influential independent carriers all gained market share.
Market Trends of Major Shipping Companies
Looking specifically at the changes among major shipping companies, with cargo volume parameters based on total US imports, MSC held a clear advantage not only on the Transpacific route, but also on the Trans-Atlantic route, and remains in first place with an 11% year-on-year increase in cargo volume. The second place has changed hands: last year’s runner-up, CMA, dropped to third, while Maersk held steady in volume and moved up to second. ONE, in fourth place, maintained stable volume with almost no change. The surprise came from Hapag-Lloyd in fifth place, with a 17% year-on-year increase—the highest growth among all alliance-affiliated carriers. Among independent carriers and importers, Wan Hai and ZIM saw rapid growth, along with new market players like HeDe Shipping and Sea Lead.
Back to the familiar Asia-US market, the changes in carrier volumes become even clearer. CMA experienced a 13.8% year-on-year decline, while Hapag-Lloyd surged by nearly 30%, with 90% of this growth coming from the Asian market. Statistically speaking, Hapag-Lloyd is neither the largest nor the most proactive player on the Transpacific route, but their strategy has clearly shifted this year.
The GC alliance brings something new to the table with its hub-and-spoke model in ports using large vessels and feeders—a approach that has been met with skepticism since its introduction, particularly regarding its ability to prevent port congestion and achieve 90% schedule reliability. According to a report, the GC alliance did achieve around 90% schedule reliability on major trade routes in the second quarter of this year, far exceeding the industry average. Is Hapag-Lloyd’s significant volume growth directly linked to GC’s reliability, and to what extent can schedule reliability help carriers attract customers? The answer is not readily avaliable, and more proof is needed for other shippers to join the trend.
Future Market Conditions in Transpacific Logistics
Changes in carrier volumes are influenced by many factors: market conditions, capacity deployment, customer types, contract and pricing strategies, peak seasons, and more. In 2025, the new alliances on the Transpacific route are catching up amid the market turmoil brought about by tariff policies. Although all carriers are competing in the same volatile market, their strategies differ, leading to varied results in cargo volumes and financial reports. Both the Transpacific route and global trade in recent years have been facing constant disruptions and unpredictability, and empiricism no longer works under such conditions.