The container shipping market is poised for a volatile 2025, with analysts predicting continued profitability for major carriers like MSC, Maersk, and CMA CGM, despite a complex landscape of potential strikes, trade barriers, and shifting alliances.
The Red Sea crisis, a significant driver of 2024’s surprising profitability, remains a key uncertainty. Lars Jensen, founder and analyst at Vespucci Maritime, describes the year as a “rollercoaster,” with the crisis as the biggest unknown. While President-elect Trump has pledged to end all wars within 24 hours of taking office, analysts express skepticism about the feasibility and strategic benefit of such a rapid intervention. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, notes that such a move is unlikely to align with Trump’s stated “America First” policy and would not be achievable within the timeframe.
“The Red Sea crisis is still a major threat,” Sand stated. “While it negatively impacted many sectors, it unexpectedly saved the shipping industry in 2024, turning a predicted industry-wide loss into the third-highest profit year in history, behind 2021 and 2022. This means the crisis will continue to be a key profit driver for liner companies in 2025.”
The potential for labor strikes, particularly in US ports, adds another layer of complexity. A tentative agreement between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILA) and the United States Maritime Union (USMX) in October, extending the contract until January 15, 2025, has not resolved all issues. Sand anticipates further disruptions, potentially lasting longer than the October strike, which disproportionately affected US exporters.
Meanwhile, the restructuring of shipping alliances is creating new opportunities for shippers. Sand notes that for the first time in years, shippers have more choices in selecting carriers and alliances. The new strategies are shifting from the traditional hub-and-spoke model to direct port-to-port connections, exemplified by MSC’s partnerships. The emergence of new alliances like Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance, along with the continued presence of Gemini and the MSC-Zim collaboration, signifies a major shift in the market dynamics.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s focus on achieving 90% on-time delivery rates will be a key factor in their success. Sand emphasizes that while reliability between major hubs is important, customers prioritize end-to-end reliability.
Looking ahead, Sand anticipates that shippers who secured long-term contracts in 2024 will likely profit, while US consumers could face higher prices and reduced choices due to potential tariffs and anti-globalization policies. The potential for a premium on routes circumventing the Red Sea, if achievable, could also benefit shippers.
The container shipping market in 2025 is poised to be a year of significant change and uncertainty, driven by the Red Sea crisis, potential labor strikes, shifting alliances, and the potential for trade barriers.